Trail Running Is Growing. I’m Not Sure It’s Scaling.

We’re seeing investment, not necessarily a sustainable sport.

I’ve been thinking about the way we talk about growth in trail running.

Because on the surface, it looks undeniable. More people are running. More brands are entering. Trails are fuller.

More money is flowing into the sport.

But I’m not sure we’re looking at the right thing.

What we’re seeing is real.

But it’s participation. It’s product. It’s people doing the sport and buying into it. That’s different from building a sport people actually follow.

In most sports, the professional layer is sustained by fans. People watch. People care. People spend. That attention turns into money.

In trail running, it feels like that relationship is flipped.

Brands are funding the professional layer, but that layer isn’t yet being sustained by a deep fan base.

That creates a kind of fragility.

Participation has limits.

You can only run so much.

You can only buy so many pairs of shoes.

Fandom doesn’t work that way.

You age out of participation. But you don’t age out of fandom.

That’s the part I don’t think we’ve built yet. There’s no clear path from casual interest to becoming an invested fan.

The experience of following the sport feels unstructured.

Almost accidental and by design even.

I’m not even sure that’s entirely a mistake. Part of what makes trail running special is how close it feels. But there’s a tradeoff.

If everything is built for the runner, the fan stays on the outside.

So here’s the question I keep coming back to:

Trail running is clearly growing.

But is it actually scaling?

I don’t know yet but it passes the eye test.

I think you learn this after investment periods end at brands. Once the money stops coming in from investors, does it float on its own? What does floating on its own look like? Does it allow for a robust professional layer where contracts grow? Will I ever get to buy a Dan Green jersey from Salomon?

Will there ever be a Salt Lake City team where I can root root root for the home team?

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